Angelo Falcón, president of the highly respected National Institute for Latino Policy (NiLP), today released the results of his organization's National Latino Opinion Leaders Survey on the Presidential Election.  According to Falcón, 689 respondents from the U.S., the territories and abroad participated in the survey.

Here is his report:

Latino Leaders Find Hillary Clinton Leading with Latino Voters

More than three-quarters (79 percent) of Latino opinion leaders in the United States project that Latino voters will support the candidacy of Hillary Clinton for President of the United States. The next highest percentage of these respondents (17 percent) felt that Latinos would vote for Barack Obama. Less than 2 percent thought that Latinos would cast their votes for John McCain, John Edwards or any other candidate.

This is one of the findings of the National Latino Opinion Leaders Survey conducted by the National Institute for Latino Policy (NiLP) between January 16th and 24th, 2008. This survey was administered through the Internet using a web survey service. The number of total respondents was 689 from across the United States, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, and represents Latino community leaders, activists and others from all sectors, including government, nonprofit, business, religion, academia and the media, who can be described as opinion leaders in the Latino community who are part of the Internet network of the National Institute for Latino Policy (NiLP), a nonprofit and nonpartisan policy center established in 1982.

Despite the feeling by such an overwhelming percentage of these Latino opinion leaders that Clinton will get the Latino vote in November, a significantly lower percentage (43 percent), indicated that they personally plan to vote for Clinton. More than a quarter (30 percent) indicated that they personally planned to vote for Obama, 10 percent for Edwards, and 5 percent for McCain. In 2004, about three-quarters (74 percent) indicated they had voted for John Kerry, with 9 percent voting for George W. Bush, 7 percent for Ralph Nader, and 10 percent for other candidates.
 
Immigration Seen as Top Issue, Closely Followed by Education

The Latino opinion leaders were asked to identify the single most pressing issue facing the Latino community today. Immigration topped the list with 27 percent, followed closely by education (and not bilingual education) by 25 percent, and the economy by 11 percent. The other leading issues identified were: poverty (9 percent), discrimination (8 percent), health (5 percent), jobs (5 percent), and U.S. relations with Latin America (4 percent).

Asked who they felt had the best positions on Latino issues among the Presidential candidates, Clinton headed the list with 42 percent indicating her. She was followed by Obama (26 percent), Kuchinich (9 percent) and McCain (5 percent). Only 3 percent felt that none of the candidates had good positions on Latino issues.

The respondents were also asked to rate each candidate on their positions on issues of importance to the Latino community on a scale of 1 to 5, where one was "poor" and 5 was "excellent." Again, Clinton topped the list with a combined rating of "4s" and "5s" by 60 percent of the respondents, followed closely by Obama (57 percent), Edwards (47 percent) and Kuchinich (46 percent). The Republican candidates received the lowest ratings on their positions on Latino issues: combined "4" and "5" ratings by only 25 percent went to McCain, who was followed by a distant 6 percent by Paul, Giuliani (4 percent), Huckabee (4 percent), Romney (2 percent), and Thompson (who dropped out of the running after the survey was conducted) (2 percent). Among the Democrats, only Gravel received such a low rating (5 percent).

Role of Race and Gender

On the issue of race, the Latino opinion leaders were presented with a couple of questions. They were asked if they thought that, in general, Latino voters would support a Black or African-American for President. Only 15 percent felt that Latino voters would not support a Black candidate, with another 6 percent stating they didn't know or weren't sure. Close to a third (31 percent) felt that Latino voters would support a Black candidate, while the largest group, close to half (48 percent), felt that it would depend on the candidate.

They were also asked how important they thought race is in the current primary races. Significantly more than three-quarters (86 percent) felt it is somewhat to very important. However, asked how important they thought it should be, the percentage dropped to 58 percent who think it should be somewhat to very important.

On the issue of the role of gender in these elections, the Latino opinion leaders were asked how important it is and should be. About three-quarters (77 percent) felt that it currently is somewhat to very important. On the other hand, less than half (47 percent) felt that gender should be somewhat or very important in these races. In as much as race and gender can be separated as issues, it appears that the Latino opinion leaders see race as being more important than gender in this election.

The Role of Latino Leadership and Spanish-Language Media

We next explored the role of Latino leaders in the election. Asked if they felt that Latino political and community leaders are playing a visible enough role in this Presidential campaign, more than three-quarters (83 percent) felt they were not, with another 9 percent indicating that they didn't know or weren't sure. Only 8 percent felt that Latino leaders were playing a visible role in this election.

On the significance of Bill Richardson's candidacy for the Presidency, the Latino opinion leaders were asked about the implications of his dropping out so early in the race. About half (49 percent) felt that, despite his leaving the race, his participation was important for the Latino community. Only 14 percent felt that this represented a set-back for the Latino community,, while 21 percent felt his candidacy was irrelevant. Another 7 percent stated that they didn't even know he was Latino, and 9 percent indicated that they didn't know or weren't sure about the question.

The Univision television network held two Presidential primary debates in Spanish in 2007 (with the candidates responding in English that was translated into Spanish), one with the Democrats and another with the Republicans. Asked how helpful these debates were to them, the largest group, about half (51 percent), indicated that they didn't see the debates. More than a third (38 percent) found they somewhat to very helpful and only 11 percent found them to not be helpful.

Profile of Latino Opinion Leaders

The largest group, half (50 percent), stated they primarily identified themselves as "Latino" or "Latina," while 14 percent preferred the term "Hispanic."  Another 17 percent said that the used both terms equally. Those who mostly referred to themselves by their national-origin instead of these pan-ethnic terms were 15 percent of the total, while another 3 percent indicated that they identified themselves mostly as "American."

About three-quarters (74 percent) stated that they were registered or affiliated with the Democratic Party. Those identifying as independent, with no party affiliation, were 17 percent of the total, Republicans were 5 percent, and 3 percent indicated other party affiliations (mostly the Green Party).

In terms of general political orientation, the largest number of Latino opinion leaders (41 percent), identified themselves as "progressive." This was followed by those who considered themselves politically "liberal" (29 percent), "moderate" (25 percent) or "conservative" (4 percent).

The Latino opinion leaders are also a highly educated group. Over two-thirds (68 percent) reported that they had attended graduate school or achieved a graduate degree. Another 17 percent indicated that had a 4-year college degree, and the remaining 16 percent that they had less than a 4-year college degree.

---